FOREX AND TRADING

You are going to love this lesson. Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations.

The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.

Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.

The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).

Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade.

If you would rather work the pivot points out by yourself, the formula I use is below:

Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.

If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.

The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.

The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.

A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position. Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can. I have picked a day at random from last week and what follows are some ideas on how you could have traded that day using pivot points.

On the 12th August 04 the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) had the following:
High - 1.2297
Low - 1.2213
Close - 1.2249

This gave us:

Resistance 3 = 1.2377
Resistance 2 = 1.2337
Resistance 1 = 1.2293
Pivot Point = 1.2253
Support 1 = 1.2209
Support 2 = 1.2169
Support 3 = 1.2125

Have a look at the 5 minute chart below

The green line is the pivot point. The blue lines are resistance levels R1,R2 and R3. The red lines are support levels S1,S2 and S3.

There are loads of ways to trade this day using pivot points but I shall walk you through a few of them and discuss why some are good in certain situations and why some are bad.

The Breakout Trade

At the beginning of the day we were below the pivot point, so our bias is for short trades. A channel formed so you would be looking for a break out of the channel, preferably to the downside. In this type of trade you would have your sell entry order just below the lower channel line with a stop order just above the upper channel line and a target of S1. The problem on this day was that, S1 was very close to the breakout level and there was just not enough meat in the trade (13 pips). This is a good entry technique for you. Just because it was not suitable this day, does not mean it will not be suitable the next day.

The Pullback Trade

This is one of my favorite set ups. The market passes through S1 and then pulls back. An entry order is placed below support, which in this case was the most recent low before the pullback. A stop is then placed above the pullback (the most recent high - peak) and a target set for S2. The problem again, on this day was that the target of S2 was to close, and the market never took out the previous support, which tells us that, the market sentiment is beginning to change.

Breakout of Resistance

As the day progressed, the market started heading back up to S1 and formed a channel (congestion area). This is another good set up for a trade. An entry order is placed just above the upper channel line, with a stop just below the lower channel line and the first target would be the pivot line. If you where trading more than one position, then you would close out half your position as the market approaches the pivot line, tighten your stop and then watch market action at that level. As it happened, the market never stopped and your second target then became R1. This was also easily achieved and I would have closed out the rest of the position at that level.

Advanced

As I mentioned earlier, there are lots of ways to trade with pivot points. A more advanced method is to use the cross of two moving averages as a confirmation of a breakout. You can even use combinations of indicators to help you make a decision. It might be the cross of two averages and also MACD must be in buy mode. Mess around with a few of your favorite indicators but remember the signal is a break of a level and the indicators are just confirmation.

We haven't even got into patterns around pivot levels or failures but that is not the point of this lesson. I just want to introduce another possible way for you to trade.

Good Trading

Best Regards
Mark McRae

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Trading together with a friend can have its advantages. If one of you has more experience and the other more money, you can help your friend through your experience and he can help with margins. Together, you can trade larger size and perhaps make more profits. However, unless you both agree to the same line of action and what the possible contingencies might be, it is essential that you decide which of you is to execute the trades. It is more difficult reaching trading decisions together than on your own.

If you haven’t decided on the contingency measures in advance you’ll find yourself arguing and disagreeing in the middle of a trade going against you when timely action is of the essence. It can be quite disheartening and dangerous.

If you are not absolutely sure about your partner, and you don’t agree with the way he trades, you are better off trading on your own.

Take for example an instance where the order placed was ambiguous and the broker executed it twice. The traders accepted the mistake and then the market moved against them. The partner with the greater margins but less experience was in charge of execution. He placed the order before the market opened to roll the position out. The market moved against him, he covered the position at three times the premium received and then the market corrected. He was unable to get the other side because he couldn’t watch intraday.

Trading is a business! You must be totally prepared in terms of having a business plan, knowing how to place orders, and being on top of them from beginning to end. Even then things can go wrong, but being unprepared can lead to disaster. The smallest details must be thought of and prepared in advance, but mistakes and oversights still happen.

I came across an interesting concept. The path to enlightenment involves conquering five human weaknesses: greed, fear, ignorance, pride and jealousy. We should be all familiar with the first two, which cause much grief to traders, but the last three can be a big problems, too, so it’s worth pondering on them. Human weaknesses always show up to undermine one’s trading.

Greed makes people stay in a trade too long, or trade too big a size. Fear makes one get out of winning trades too early. Ignorance makes people commit innumerable mistakes. Pride doesn’t allow one to admit one is wrong and often, small losses are allowed to turn into huge losses because one doesn’t want to accept one is wrong. Jealousy can make one trade in a subjective manner.

A detached attitude is a great asset in trading. Trading is war and it is essential that you execute a pre-planned line of action flawlessly and unemotionally. You must be flexible and let things (that are now second nature) take their course. Be like an outside passive observer.

That is why it is so important to be at your best when trading. You must have all possible things on your side. You need to feel totally on top of it, prepared, in top physical shape.

Even the big stocks will show similar patterns as this chart of IBM shows. IBM made the first top in mid-July and then pulled back to around $120. It then rallied back up to its previous high of $140 in mid-September (Double Top) but couldn't sustain its momentum and sold-off sharply the next several weeks ($140 to $90). Although it's hard to see, the second top made by IBM in mid-September was on lower volume.

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This particular technique has been around for a long time and I first saw it used in the futures market.

Since then I have seen traders using it on just about every market and when applied well, can give amazingly accurate entry levels.

Lets first start with the basic concept. During the course of any trend, either up or down, the market will form little peaks and valleys. see the chart below:

The problem is, how do you know when to enter the market and where do you get out. This is where the 1-2-3 method comes in. First let's look at a typical 1-2-3 set up:

Nice and simple, but it still doesn't tell us if we should take the trade. For this we add an indictor. You could use just about any indictor with this method but my preferred indictor is MACD with the standard settings of 12,26,9. With the indictor added, it now looks like this:

Now here is where it gets interesting. The rules for the trade are as follows:

Uptrend

1. This works best as a reversal pattern so identify a previous downtrend.
2. Wait for the MACD to signal a buy and for the 1-2-3 set up to
   be in place.
3. As the market pulls back to point 3, the MACD should remain in
   buy mode or just slightly dip into sell.
4. Place a buy entry order 1 pip above point 2
5. Place a stop loss order 1 pip below point 3
6. Measure the distance between point 2 and 3 and project that
   forward for your exit.
7. Point 2, should not be lower than point 1

The reverse is true for short trades. As the market progresses you can trail your stop to 1 pip below the most recent low (Valley in an uptrend). You can also use a break in a trend line as an exit.

Some examples:

There are a lot of variations on the 1-2-3 setup but the basic concept is always the same. Try experimenting with it on your favorite time frame.

Good Trading

Best Regards
Mark McRae

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